Research Wiki 2006

Thank You

Thanks to everyone who read and helped me with the Market Research Database (wiki) & blog project this year! It has come a long way since it started in March, 2006. I’d like to single out a few people who inspired me and those who made it possible.

  • Dino — Thanks for your input and support.
  • Doug & Mike in Saskatoon — Thanks for letting me use Moin Moin way back in Mar 2006 & answering my dumb questions.
  • Dave Climie — Thanks for providing a path to the content.
  • Stacy Nichols — Thanks for input on the initial design. ( ie make it navigable via search instead of a catalog … catalog infers that one knows what data will be used for.)
  • Brian Holden — Thanks for evangelizing the use of Wiki’s.
  • Tim Pezarro & team — Thanks for coping with the Wiki evangelists.
  • Marc Eden — Thanks for introducing me to Wiki’s in 2005.
  • Dave Tucker — Thanks for getting me going on web-enabled document’s back in 2005.

What was good to read?

I’ve continually updated my opinion on recommended reading page.

Outlook for 2007

I’m hoping that 2007 will be nicer to the Comm Semi sector. The stock performance of the Comm Semi sector was ugly in 2006. Few new product ideas emerged and as such companies focussed on financial innovation to survive. These financial innovations took many forms: some went private, some merged, and some were acquired.

I tend to think that Comm Semi product innovation has lost momentum because the telco’s have lost momentum as well. While telco’s are rolling out broadband, wireless, and IPTV with wild abandon, only connectivity revenue from wireless, and broadband, have reasonable visibilty. The new application segments, like IPTV, are wild-assed bets. It is likely that Internet players will dominate, or have significant share of, new services like IPTV. Thus comm semi players will need to determine how to serve a new customer food chain. The bottom line is that networks designed by Google are different than those designed by Verizon. This fact will continue to polarize internet hardware products into 2 camps – telco (walled garden) and internet (open). There is gonna be a ton of new hardware deployed for new application services, but it won’t be the old hardware and the drivers will not be the old guard.

I will continue to focus on longer term trends in Broadband, IPTV, Wireless, Telco Services, and Internet services via individual companies, industry groups, blogs and analyst research.

Wherever possible I’ve been following pure play stocks. For example, for IPTV appliance hardware is visible via Sigma Designs & DivX, HDTVs are visible via Trident, Bluetooth is visible via Cambridge Silicon Radio, Edge Routers via Redback (ok this is now gone). It is interesting that all of the pure plays seem to be doing exceptionally well.

There are many industry groups and forums to follow. The best place for Broadband statistics is turning out to be the OECD ICT group — key indicators & Broadband stats.

On the blog front, I feel like I’ve got a good handle on North America and Europe, but I’m not doing well with Asia. Any hints on Asia? I particularly like Om Malik’s sites (GigaOM & NewTeeVee), Andrew @ Nyquist Capital ( but it feels like his time to blog is dropping), Fred Wilson’s A VC, Paul Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed, James Enck’s EuroTelco Blog, Martin Geddes Telco 2.0. I also like Dave Burstein’s DSL Prime Newsletter.

On the stock Analyst research front, I’ve been following lots of people, this usually means the troops at UBS ( Nikos Theodosopoulos (US) and Qi Wang (Asia) ), Thomas Weisel ( Bunting and Ader), Daiwa ( Enck), Prudential (Inder Singh), Think Equity ( Media guys), and Credit Suisse (Paul Silverstein).

I’ve stopped posting conference call transcripts because they are all available on seeking alpha.

Thanks & Happy New Year,
Iain

ps. It’s okay to comment.

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